Snap Judgment: How Not To Be Wrong

It’s been said that the only thing that never changes in life is the presence of change itself. Sometimes change just happens “to you” but often – maybe more often than you want to admit – the changes in your life are the result of your own judgments and decisions. What’s more, those judgments and decisions aren’t getting any easier. Consider the following: 

• Americans today have to make more decisions than ever before.
Many of those “judgment calls” are minor, but just as many have lasting consequences.

• The large number of decisions we face means we often have to make them very quickly. “Snap judgments” are the norm.

• These judgments are both helped and hurt by the volume of information that’s constantly bombarding us. How much of that information should be trusted? How much should be avoided at all costs.

In her book entitled Make Your Own Luck: 12 Practical Steps to Taking Smarter Risks in Business. author Eileen Shapiro coined the phrase “predictive intelligence -- the ability to act correctly amid uncertainty in order to bring about a desired result.” A person with predictive intelligence is able to visualize the outcomes of various judgments. He or she can then make the judgment that causes  the most positive outcome to materialize.

 

Conversely – and this is very important – predictive intelligence is also the power to avoid making judgments that lead to negative outcomes, or even disaster.

 

Predictive intelligence is a very useful concept and there’s much to be said about it. Why are some people so good at seeing various outcomes while other people are terrible at it? How can Mister X make a correct judgment so quickly, while Mister Y dithers for days -- and still makes the wrong decision? Is it better to be cautious and analytical in your judgments, or instinctive and intuitive?

 

Yes, there’s a lot to think about! But here’s the good news. I may not be able to tell you how to always make the correct judgment – but right here and right now I will tell you how to avoid making the wrong judgment no matter how tough the decision is, and no matter how quickly it has to be made. Remember: predictive intelligence is also the power to avoid making judgments that lead to negative outcomes, or even disaster. Are you ready to acquire that power? Well, here it comes. First there’s an overriding principle, and then a very important corollary….

 

The overriding principle is this: If you feel a sudden and powerful surge of either positive or negative emotion in a decision-making situation – especially in a time-constrained “snap judgment situation – and you act upon that emotion, you will be making a mistake at least nine times out of ten. In fact, the more powerful that surge of euphoria or revulsion is, the greater the odds against you become. That’s predictive intelligence that you can take to the bank, and it’s a lot simpler than you might have imagined. And maybe I can put it even more simply: in a “snap judgment” situation, be very suspicious of extremely strong first impressions.

 

Of course, sometimes an extremely strong first impression will turn out to be correct. I didn’t say this principle is an infallible one; I just said it’s an “overriding” one. That’s why I like the corollary to the principle even better. The corollary really is infallible. This never fails. And it’s just a matter of changing a couple of simple words….

 

If you feel a sudden and powerful surge of anger in a decision-making situation – especially in a time-constrained “snap judgment situation – and you act upon that emotion, you will be making a mistake one hundred percent of the time.

 

That’s right – you should never allow anger to be the basis for your judgments. Never! It doesn’t matter whether you feel totally justified in your anger. It doesn’t even matter if you are totally justified. Take anger out of the equation. And if you’re just too angry to do that, then wait until you calm down. Because as urgent as the need for a “snap judgment” may seem, the negative effects of an angry decision will continue long after that urgency has passed.